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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 10 at the 29

New England Patriots 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 17

What Actually Happened

(1:26) 6-N.Folk 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +0.41 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.69 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 29, worth -1.44 EP
KICK +1.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 39, worth -2.12 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model