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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 49

Las Vegas Raiders 17 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(8:02) 6-A.Cole punts 47 yards to NE 2, Center-47-T.Sieg, downed by LV-10-M.Hollins.

The Three Options

GO +0.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.03 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.72 EP
KICK -0.91 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.73 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 14, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP