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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 53

New England Patriots 3 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(:35) 17-M.Palardy punt is BLOCKED by 51-M.Koonce, Center-49-J.Cardona, recovered by NE-3-J.Peppers at NE 28. 3-J.Peppers to NE 20 for -8 yards (34-B.Bolden, 98-M.Crosby).

The Three Options

GO -0.31 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.04 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 53, worth -1.94 EP
KICK -0.55 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.40 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -1.70 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 15, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model