Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 14 at the 79

New England Patriots 3 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

(4:00) 17-M.Palardy punts 47 yards to LV 32, Center-49-J.Cardona. 13-H.Renfrow to LV 39 for 7 yards (99-J.Collins).

The Three Options

GO -2.72 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.37 EP
69% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 79, worth -4.54 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model