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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 12 at the 43

Miami Dolphins 29 – Buffalo Bills 29

What Actually Happened

(6:04) 4-T.Morstead punts 36 yards to BUF 7, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 20-N.Hines.

The Three Options

GO -0.09 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.52 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 43, worth -1.67 EP
KICK -0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.09 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 12, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model