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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 3 at the 29

Miami Dolphins 26 – Buffalo Bills 21

What Actually Happened

(12:01) 7-J.Sanders 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +1.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.08 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 29, worth -1.33 EP
KICK +1.10 EP
What Happened
  • 81% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 39, worth -1.86 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP