Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 55

Buffalo Bills 21 – Miami Dolphins 26

(:59) 8-S.Martin punts 45 yards to MIA 10, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.77 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.84 EP
66% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 55, worth -2.66 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model