4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 4 at the 76

Buffalo Bills 21 – Miami Dolphins 13

What Actually Happened

(13:46) 8-S.Martin punts 49 yards to MIA 27, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.41 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 76, worth -4.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.60 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 34, worth -1.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model