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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 11 at the 52

Miami Dolphins 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(13:18) 4-T.Morstead punts 38 yards to BUF 14, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 20-N.Hines to BUF 19 for 5 yards (52-E.Roberts). Return credited to BUF 14 (penalty during kick). PENALTY on BUF-25-T.Jones, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at BUF 14. Penalty on BUF-33-S.Neal, Offensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO -1.29 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.92 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 52, worth -3.34 EP
KICK -2.04 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.36 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -3.29 EP
PUNT -1.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 15, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model