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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 69

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Indianapolis Colts 17

What Actually Happened

(1:16) 4-D.Cook up the middle to MIN 31 for no gain (44-Z.Franklin, 54-D.Odeyingbo).

The Three Options

GO +0.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.96 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 69, worth -3.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 27, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model