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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 36

Indianapolis Colts 36 – Minnesota Vikings 28

What Actually Happened

(2:31) 2-M.Ryan up the middle to MIN 36 for no gain (58-J.Hicks; 54-E.Kendricks). Indianapolis challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #2.)

The Three Options

GO +0.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +1.57 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 36, worth -2.01 EP
KICK +0.17 EP
  • 69% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.24 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 46, worth -2.23 EP
PUNT -0.94 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model