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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 15 at the 45

Minnesota Vikings 28 – Indianapolis Colts 36

What Actually Happened

(2:57) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins scrambles left tackle to IND 44 for 1 yard (54-D.Odeyingbo).

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP
What Happened
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.27 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 45, worth -1.69 EP
KICK -0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.03 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 12, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model