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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 8 at the 96

Indianapolis Colts 36 – Minnesota Vikings 21

What Actually Happened

(7:13) 6-M.Haack punts 46 yards to 50, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 5-J.Reagor.

The Three Options

GO -3.21 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth +0.59 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 96, worth -5.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (113 yards).

PUNT -2.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 53, worth -2.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model