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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 52

Indianapolis Colts 33 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(11:23) 6-M.Haack punts 40 yards to MIN 12, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 5-J.Reagor.

The Three Options

GO -0.77 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.96 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 52, worth -2.95 EP
KICK -1.47 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.88 EP
PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 15, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model