Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 18 at the 85

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Indianapolis Colts 33

What Actually Happened

(14:05) 14-R.Wright punts 50 yards to IND 35, Center-42-A.DePaola. 33-D.Flowers MUFFS catch, and recovers at IND 34. 33-D.Flowers to IND 34 for no gain (29-K.Boyd).

The Three Options

GO -3.07 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.83 EP
72% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 85, worth -5.00 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model