Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 10 at the 64

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Indianapolis Colts 30

What Actually Happened

(4:06) 14-R.Wright punts 43 yards to IND 21, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 33-D.Flowers. PENALTY on MIN-29-K.Boyd, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at IND 21.

The Three Options

GO -1.25 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.59 EP
66% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 64, worth -3.26 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model