Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 13 at the 65

Indianapolis Colts 23 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(6:40) 6-M.Haack punts 55 yards to MIN 10, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 5-J.Reagor ran ob at MIN 20 for 10 yards (41-G.Stuard). PENALTY on MIN-29-K.Boyd, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at MIN 10.

The Three Options

GO -2.02 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.36 EP
71% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 65, worth -3.83 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model