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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 10 at the 31

Indianapolis Colts 20 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(10:46) 7-C.McLaughlin 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO -0.09 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.20 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 31, worth -1.87 EP
KICK +0.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.39 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 41, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT -0.66 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model