4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 65

Detroit Lions 7 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(:21) 3-J.Fox punts 43 yards to NYJ 22, Center-47-S.Daly, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO -1.53 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.44 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 65, worth -3.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 23, worth -1.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model