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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 11 at the 99

New York Jets 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(6:13) 7-B.Mann punts 46 yards to NYJ 47, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 11-K.Raymond for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -3.88 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth +0.44 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 99, worth -6.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (116 yards).

PUNT -2.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 53, worth -2.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model