Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 18 at the 60

New York Jets 17 – Detroit Lions 20

(:14) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass deep left to 8-E.Moore to DET 40 for 20 yards (31-K.Joseph).

The Three Options

GO -0.41 EP

What Happened

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +0.69 EP
75% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 60, worth -0.78 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.40 EP