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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 51

Detroit Lions 13 – New York Jets 17

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 89-B.Wright for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +0.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +1.86 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 51, worth -1.38 EP
KICK -0.57 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -1.38 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 14, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model