4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 1

Detroit Lions 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(6:59) 30-Ja.Williams left guard to NYJ 2 for -1 yards (56-Qu.Williams, 39-W.Parks).

The Three Options

GO +3.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.63 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 1, worth +0.16 EP
KICK +1.65 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model