Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 64

New York Jets 10 – Detroit Lions 13

(14:00) 7-B.Mann punts 55 yards to DET 9, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO -0.99 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.07 EP
55% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 64, worth -3.53 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model