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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 5 at the 49

Detroit Lions 13 – New York Jets 10

What Actually Happened

(7:22) 3-J.Fox punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-47-S.Daly, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.97 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.82 EP
KICK -1.60 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 14, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model