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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 11 at the 16

Detroit Lions 10 – New York Jets 10

What Actually Happened

(11:58) 17-M.Badgley 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +0.99 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.65 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 16, worth -0.84 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 26, worth -1.31 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model