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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 60

Detroit Lions 10 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(:31) 3-J.Fox punts 41 yards to NYJ 19, Center-47-S.Daly, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO -0.69 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +1.49 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 60, worth -2.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 19, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model