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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 12 at the 13

Detroit Lions 7 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(7:09) 17-M.Badgley 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +1.07 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.37 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 13, worth -0.86 EP
KICK +1.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.38 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 23, worth -1.45 EP
PUNT -0.72 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model