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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 3 at the 38

Detroit Lions 7 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(10:00) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown pushed ob at NYJ 26 for 12 yards (30-M.Carter). Penalty on NYJ-22-T.Adams, Defensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO +0.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.45 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 38, worth -2.34 EP
KICK -0.57 EP
  • 55% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.40 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 47, worth -2.98 EP
PUNT -0.80 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model