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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 11 at the 49

Atlanta Falcons 0 – New Orleans Saints 14

What Actually Happened

(6:48) 13-B.Pinion punts 40 yards to NO 9, Center-48-L.McCullough, fair catch by 89-R.Shaheed.

The Three Options

GO -1.01 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.16 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -3.00 EP
KICK -1.28 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 14, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model