Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 8 at the 73

Atlanta Falcons 0 – New Orleans Saints 7

(9:16) 13-B.Pinion punts 46 yards to NO 27, Center-48-L.McCullough. 89-R.Shaheed to NO 27 for no gain (12-K.Hodge).

The Three Options

GO -2.19 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.23 EP
60% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 73, worth -4.49 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model