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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 70

New Orleans Saints 21 – Atlanta Falcons 18

What Actually Happened

(6:16) 4-B.Gillikin punts 53 yards to ATL 17, Center-49-Z.Wood. 35-A.Williams to ATL 37 for 20 yards (46-A.Prentice). PENALTY on ATL-28-M.Ford, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 20.

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.39 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 70, worth -3.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 28, worth -1.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model