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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 7 at the 43

New Orleans Saints 14 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(3:27) 4-B.Gillikin punts 41 yards to ATL 2, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-48-J.Gray.

The Three Options

GO +0.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.60 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 43, worth -1.89 EP
KICK -0.17 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.48 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 12, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP