Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 7 at the 82

Atlanta Falcons 3 – New Orleans Saints 14

(5:47) 13-B.Pinion punts 46 yards to NO 36, Center-48-L.McCullough. 89-R.Shaheed to NO 37 for 1 yard (12-K.Hodge).

The Three Options

GO -2.28 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.92 EP
56% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 82, worth -4.75 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model