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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 6 at the 10

Atlanta Falcons 0 – New Orleans Saints 14

What Actually Happened

(11:19) 7-Y.Koo 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.82 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 10, worth -0.37 EP
KICK +1.47 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP