4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 15 at the 51

New York Giants 14 – Philadelphia Eagles 48

What Actually Happened

(1:00) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor scrambles up the middle to PHI 19 for 32 yards (42-K.Wallace).

The Three Options

GO -0.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +2.48 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 51, worth -1.22 EP
KICK -0.22 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.43 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -1.22 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 14, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model