Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 70

New York Giants 14 – Philadelphia Eagles 34

(12:51) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones scrambles up the middle to NYG 36 for 6 yards (24-J.Bradberry).

The Three Options

GO -1.23 EP

What Happened

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.68 EP
53% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 70, worth -3.83 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model