Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 14 at the 79

New York Giants 14 – Philadelphia Eagles 34

(:16) 6-J.Gillan punts 51 yards to PHI 28, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 18-B.Covey to PHI 44 for 16 yards (85-C.Myarick).

The Three Options

GO -2.48 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.69 EP
68% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 79, worth -4.41 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model