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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 11 at the 21

Philadelphia Eagles 24 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(11:25) 4-J.Elliott 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-18-B.Covey.

The Three Options

GO +1.00 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.19 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.85 EP
KICK +1.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 31, worth -1.62 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model