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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 70

New York Giants 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 24

What Actually Happened

(:26) 6-J.Gillan punts 50 yards to PHI 20, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 18-B.Covey to PHI 32 for 12 yards (20-J.Love, 85-C.Myarick).

The Three Options

GO -1.16 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.87 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 70, worth -2.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 28, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model