4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 9 at the 11

Philadelphia Eagles 21 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(:58) 4-J.Elliott 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-18-B.Covey.

The Three Options

GO +2.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.12 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP
KICK +2.00 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 22, worth -0.67 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model