Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 16 at the 98

Philadelphia Eagles 21 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(4:25) 8-A.Siposs punt is BLOCKED by 94-E.Smith, Center-45-R.Lovato, recovered by PHI-8-A.Siposs at PHI 2. 8-A.Siposs ran ob at PHI 15 for 13 yards (38-Z.Gilbert). PHI-8-A.Siposs was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -3.98 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.46 EP
66% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 98, worth -6.26 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (115 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model