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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 10 at the 50

New York Giants 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 21

What Actually Happened

(5:14) 6-J.Gillan punts 42 yards to PHI 8, Center-58-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.54 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 50, worth -2.67 EP
KICK -1.27 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 14, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model