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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 7 at the 57

New York Giants 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(8:32) (Punt formation) 6-J.Gillan to NYG 33 for -10 yards. FUMBLES, touched at NYG 33, recovered by NYG-52-C.Coughlin at NYG 33. PENALTY on NYG-6-J.Gillan, Illegal Kick/Kicking Loose Ball, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 43.

The Three Options

GO -0.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.87 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 57, worth -2.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.78 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 17, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model