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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 19 at the 57

New York Jets 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(1:39) 7-B.Mann punts 39 yards to BUF 18, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 20-N.Hines to BUF 20 for 2 yards (88-K.Yeboah).

The Three Options

GO -1.68 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.21 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 57, worth -3.27 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 17, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model