Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 16 at the 88

Buffalo Bills 0 – New York Jets 0

(2:36) 8-S.Martin punts 46 yards to NYJ 42, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 10-B.Berrios pushed ob at BUF 48 for 10 yards (4-J.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -2.96 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.43 EP
69% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 88, worth -4.95 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model