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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 12 at the 51

Buffalo Bills 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(6:15) 8-S.Martin punts 51 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.59 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 51, worth -2.44 EP
KICK -1.27 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.48 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 14, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model