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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 5 at the 66

Buffalo Bills 20 – New York Jets 12

What Actually Happened

(:53) 8-S.Martin punts 45 yards to NYJ 21, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO -0.83 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +0.82 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 66, worth -2.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 24, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model