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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 9

New York Jets 9 – Buffalo Bills 20

What Actually Happened

(1:21) 6-G.Zuerlein 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +2.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +4.22 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 9, worth -0.23 EP
KICK +2.14 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.22 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP