Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 9 at the 91

Buffalo Bills 20 – New York Jets 7

(7:35) 8-S.Martin punt is BLOCKED by 52-J.Johnson, Center-69-R.Ferguson, ball out of bounds in End Zone, SAFETY.

The Three Options

GO -2.87 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.65 EP
60% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 91, worth -5.26 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model